Ha Ha Trump Already Planning to Fold

Trump still hasn't used those shutdown powers centrist Dems warned he would and the White House is looking for an exit

Oct. 3: White House prepares concept of a plan to chicken out and cave … Polls show Americans overwhelmingly want Obamacare subsidies extended … Republicans join Democrats asking why Trump thinks he can murder people in boats … RFK, Jr.’s, FDA approves generic abortion pill for all those generic abortions he needs …

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Pres. Donald Trump pretends to listen to Russell Vought, then acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, as Vought pretends to care about transparency on Oct. 9, 2019, in the White House. (Shealah Craighead / White House photo.)

Remember during the March shutdown showdown, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) yelled at fellow Senate Democrats to give in and approve GOP funding levels because or else it would “not be a normal shutdown” and Pres. Donald Trump would do “great harm” like he, presumably, wasn’t already doing?

Well, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), one of the key players who poisoned American political discourse in the 1990s, on Thursday bragged that that’s what’s coming.

“This is one of the advantages of having four years in the wilderness to think about all this,” said Gingrich about all the planning Republicans have done, while out of office, for the opportunity a shutdown would hand them.

Gingrich told Politico that the White House “[W]ill be very methodical in singling out the things liberals love most and maximizing changes in a way that we’ll see how many days the left can take that. I’m sure this is going to be a steady campaign.”

Because if Trump’s known for anything, it’s steady anything.

But if history teaches us anything, it’s that whatever Gingrich says is almost as wrongly wrong as is scientifically possible. And so were centrist Democrats.

Remember, the entire premise of “not a normal shutdown” is that a shutdown gives Trump an opportunity, which by definition he wouldn’t want to lose. So he’d act fast, in case Senate Democrats fold and end the shutdown — which they literally could have done Wednesday and Thursday and will get another shot at today.

So where was all that wilderness planning on Wednesday? And Thursday?

House Republicans held a private call Wednesday with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought, the Project 2025 guy. As one source told Politico, Vought “was surprisingly vague on everything.”

What, Vought forgot to bring the graham crackers and marshmallows? But we were supposed to get s’more layoffs already!

Vought’s vagueness might have been surprisingly to House Republicans. Maybe. But not to you Newsfuckers, who know how many Republicans spend their time in the wilderness drinking beers and shooting shit.

Sure enough, there was Trump, yesterday, saying he would meet with Vought “to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut.” Which is weird because yesterday was Day Two of the shutdown and I was told they’ve spent four years planning this in their tents with their faces underlit by flashlights to make it spooky.

Of course, it’s possible Trump will do some of the stuff Gingrich and Gillibrand warned of, but not for the reasons Ginglibranch warned of. If they do crack down hard, it’ll be out of desperation to end this great opportunity that they wilderness-planned for instead of learning how to build a fire and stow their trash away from bears.

How do we know they want out? Newsfucker, they’re already planning for it.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal, the paper that gave us the phrase, “We have certain things in common, Jeffrey”:

Oh, you want more, you greedy little Newsfuckers? Well, you’ve been so good…

“President Trump has projected unwavering confidence that he is winning the messaging war over the government shutdown. But behind the scenes, his team is increasingly concerned that the issue at the center of the debate will create political vulnerabilities for Republicans…

“Inside the White House, aides are discussing proposals to extend the enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans…

“The closed-door hand-wringing stands in contrast to the public bravado conveyed by the president and his top advisers.”

Goes down smooth, don’t it?

The guy who became famous saying “You’re fired” now isn’t. In fact, the Washington Post reports that the possible number of layoffs is fewer than 16,000. Which would’ve counted as a bad day’s work under Elon Musk.

And, in fact, the Post says that top federal officials are counseling agencies that they can’t fire people. How come? You’re not allowed to incur new financial obligations during a shutdown. And firing someone — not furloughing them — means incurring the financial obligation to give them severance pay.

Some unions are already suing Vought just for threatening this shit. Here’s Politico, telling us that what TFN’s been saying would happen is what’s happening:

“White House allies say these narrow moves fall short of the kind of sweeping cuts to the federal workforce and spending that budget director Russ Vought has long promised and instead reflect a growing view among some Republicans that policy decisions the administration makes during the shutdown could come back to bite them.”

And it’s not just among some Republicans where that’s a growing view. Unlike most days, today the White House actually does have an empirical basis for how it’s feeling.

Multiple polls show that Americans are already blaming Trump and congressional Republicans for the shutdown more than they’re blaming Democrats. Probably because Republicans control the White House and Congress and maybe because some people know Senate Republicans could end the filibuster today and re-open the government before Happy Hour starts at Chili’s.

In one poll, even two-thirds of Republicans aren’t blaming Democrats.

So, not surprisingly except to Gingrich, Republicans are already privately looking for an off-ramp they haven’t defunded yet. There’s Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) complaining that Trump froze state infrastructure spending. There’s Reps. Blake Moore (R-UT) and Brian Babin (R-TX) telling Vought not to do mass layoffs.

Asked about Trump’s layoffs, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) said, “I don’t like it,” adding some other stuff TFN isn’t quoting because Bacon blames Democrats and whatever dude.

The military will start missing paychecks on Oct. 15, including at the base Moore represents. And Republicans are already working with Democrats on a plan to extend military paychecks, a mini-cave that will weaken Trump’s position, potentially forcing him to spelunk his way into the big cave.

As TFN pointed out yesterday, states that voted for Vice Pres. Kamala Harris are taking economic hits — because Democrats are standing up to protect poor people in states that voted for Trump. And now we’ve got some great confirmation-biasy numbers to confirm the shit out of that bias.

According to the Wall Street Journal — that private birthday-note-publishing rag again! — if Republicans win and Democrats blink, Obamacare premiums will soar for more than 20 million people. (TFN listed some state premium hikes yesterday.)

There are 75 congressional districts where at least 10% of people are on Obamacare. Of those 75 districts uniquely poised to suffer from Trumpacare rate hikes, 62 are in just three red states: Florida, Georgia, and Texas.

And more than half of those 62 districts elected a Republican to represent them¹.

THOSE UNDOCUMENTED MEDICAID RECIPIENTS Yes, it’s bullshit that Democrats are fighting to give new medical benefits to undocumented immigrants. Which is too bad, because they should be.

But it’s also really helpful to know that Republicans are right in one respect. Hospitals do get Medicaid reimbursements for some emergency-room treatments that are required by law for everyone. But guess what? This means that as recently as Tuesday, Republicans, too, were paying hospitals with taxpayer dollars to sew that injured, undocumented factory worker’s elbow back on. And will be again after the shutdown.

THE POLL THAT MATTERS As longtime Newsfuckers know, one thing your support allows me to do is dig past the corporate media headlines, tunneling from New Jersey past the horserace/blame-game bullshit and into policy details that affect people’s lives.

Which is what I did with the new Washington Post poll. And here’s the poll result that arguably matters most, but is getting the least coverage. Remember, this whole fight is over a single, simple policy question: Should Congress extend the Obamacare subsidies to prevent a massive rate hike? Which is exactly what the poll asked:

• Yes: 71%

• No: 29%

Those are the numbers Democrats should focus on. Out of that 71%, two-thirds say Democrats should hold out for the Obamacare extension even if it keeps the government shut down.

Oh, and those 29% who for some fucked-up reason oppose extending Obamacare subsidies? More than one in four of them, 28%, think Republicans should do it anyway to end the shutdown.

Trump’s War Consensus Splintering Before He’s Even Started the War

Members of Congress in both parties have some questions for Pres. Donald Trump about this Venezuela war he’s a’fixin’ to start in order to wipe out illegal drugs and/or his claim not to have started any new wars.

During a briefing on Wednesday about Trump killing 17 people in boats, Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Armed Services Committee reportedly pressed the Pentagon for better answers about the legal justification for said murders.

“I was there,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA). “I’m not satisfied.”

The committee’s top Democrat, Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), said the White House has offered “no credible legal justification, evidence or intelligence” for murdering 17 people in boats.

In a boat-murder memo to Congress on Thursday — y’know, to make Trump’s boat-murders all official-like — the White House said Trump ordered the three-boat murders “pursuant to the law of armed conflict.”

While much of the corporate media are focusing — not wrongly! — on this sounding a lot like a declaration of war, TFN would like to point out that it’s also a lie.

There was no conflict. It’s not even clear there were arms except the meat and bone kind. Blowing up people who are not shooting at you or blowing you up is not a conflict. It’s an inflict. The U.S. was engaged in armed inflicting of death, not in armed conflict with anyone.

Trust the world’s biggest con man to make everything a con.

FLASHBACK Lest anyone forget, earlier this week over on my original-reporting Substack, I revealed the sources of Trump’s putative intel for his claim that Venezuela is waging a covert war on the U.S. by deploying thousands of Tren de Aragua members here to deal drugs, sex traffic, and start the Los Angeles wildfires.

Media Watch

Very smart point about media here about what breaks through the noise to reach most of the public. The example is how Americans are perceiving Pres. Donald Trump’s diabolical, performative-fascism paramilitary raids on people suspected of committing the grave misdemeanor of not possessing appropriate immigration documents.

And it makes sense to keep an eye on non-political media to get a sense of what non-weirdo people are seeing. Like readers of People Magazine. Which just headlined a story: “ICE Agents Rappel from Helicopter in Overnight Chicago Raid, Dragging Kids from Beds to U-Hauls.”

Which is now in the brains of even non-political people who just came to People for the lead story: “Taylor Swift Says Travis Kelce ‘Crushed It’ with His Marriage Proposal: ‘He Went All Out — 10 Out of 10’.”

But did he rappel from a helicopter to u-haul her to the altar?

Four Quickies

• On another day, with less shutdowning and boat-murder justifying, this might have been today’s lead story. But there’s no shame in a quickie! Including, apparently, quickies that lead to abortions. Because yesterday, the Food and Drug Administration approved the generic version of mifepristone, the abortion pill. And Republican senators are now wishing they had aborted the nomination of Health (sic) and Human (sic) Services (sic) Secretary Robert Flushing Kennedy, Jr., in its first trimester. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said, “I have lost confidence in the leadership at FDA,” which answers to the leadership of Kennedy. Who, lest we forget, was an ardent pro-choice guy, if only due to his personal need for readily available abortions.

• Officials are revising the death toll in Thursday’s Yom Kippur attack outside a Manchester, England, synagogue. It’s still two dead — both Jewish men — but we now have more detail on their killers. One was stabbed to death by the attacker, preliminarily identified as Jihad Al-Shamie. But the other was shot, which is intriguing because Al-Shamie didn’t have a gun. The cops did, though. Which is how they shot the other victim. I know the point of terrorism is to goad governments into hurting their own people, but it’s rare to hit a 1:1 ratio this quick.

• No new job numbers expected today! That’s not (just) because we don’t expect Pres. Donald Trump to create new jobs anymore. It’s because he furloughed the jobs of the people who count the jobs he’s uncreated. Typically, the government relies on monthly numbers for Trump to ignore when he claims job growth like no one’s ever seen. Instead, and hilariously, the world is now looking to private job estimates, which will just give those estimates more of a spotlight whenever Trump gets around to reviving and rigging the government’s estimates.

• Trump is so concerned about the inflammatory rhetoric of Democrats that on Thursday he called them “THE PARTY OF HATE, EVIL AND SATAN.” Satan, of course, is the chief executive officer of Hell, where he torments the souls of bad people the way God wants him to because, hey, deterrence. So I’m pretty sure Trump just said Democrats are doing God’s will? Which is how you cool the rhetoric! (Trump’s post may just be part of his negotiating style, in which he wields his worst rhetorical attacks right before caving.)

Taking Action

You can get info about and sign up for the general strike at GeneralStrikeUS.com.

The next round of No Kings rallies is October 18. You can find events at NoKings.org, and keep checking, because new events will get added.

TCB

NEWSFUCKING FUCK-UP A diligent Newsfucker caught me calling an immigration judge a judge yesterday. Weirdly, immigration judges are not judges. I’ve gotta read up on it and go back and fix, but wanted to alert you to the fuckup. Sorry about that and thanks to every diligent Newsfucker helping fuck the news.

THANKS Team TFN is growing! A few of you stepped up to help maintain two pages I started — and almost instantly neglected — to organize resources for ways you can learn and get involved and to serve as a guide to upcoming elections. The elections guide has now been updated, just in time for voting, and you can check it out here.

BELATED THANKS To aid my original reporting, several of you last week stepped up and volunteered to transcribe material for me. Or at least run it through transcription apps that I’m not great at feeding audio/video into. This work was a material aid to my exclusive reporting on Sunday revealing the inside story behind Trump’s Venezuela intel. Thank you.

TAKE ACTION WHILST ROCKING OUT If you're in the Chicago area don’t forget to check out Triple, an actual, 2025, rock’n’roll trio doing :::gasp::: protest rock! You can check them out here and, full disclosure, at least one of them’s a full-on hardcore punk Newsfucker. Go spread the word of their protest song, “No” and show ‘em some newsfucking love.

They’re planning Chicago-area gigs to support local candidates so go follow and haul some amps over to Instagram here. Thanks, Triple. Go get ‘em, three kids!

SUPPORTING TFN How nice this week not to have that ugly billboard pitching subscription upgrades up top, right? You can thank your fellow Newsfuckers who upgraded to paid this week for that!

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Go get ‘em, kids! Remember, Russell Vought doesn’t even like s’mores…

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TFN creator and writer Jonathan Larsen co-created Up w/ Chris Hayes and wrote for Countdown with Keith Olbermann at MSNBC, helped launch CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360° and Air America Radio, and has also worked at The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Young Turks.

1. Okay, newsfucking number nerds … anyone know — or, God help you — able to figure out which Republicans represent those 62 districts? I know, this is an impossible one. Extra credit only!