Well, Holy Fucking Shit — IOWA?!?
Old ladies power Harris into the lead in Iofuckingwa
It’s a bad idea to spend presidential campaigns obsessing over polls. And this year’s polls especially are hideously unreliable.
However.
We are now three days away from Election Day. And I know some people are losing it. Your TFN will have more to say about that tomorrow, I hope, so please hang in there.
But in the meantime, chew on this edible:
The final Des Moines Register poll is one of those polls that political insiders look to obsessively the way used to read — just to cite a random example — Washington Post presidential endorsements.
The newspaper surveyed likely voters from Oct. 28-31. That included voters who have already voted. The results?
Vice President Kamala Harris: 47%
Former Pres. Donald Trump: 44%
But, mathematically inclined Newsfuckers may object, that only adds up to 91%. How can this be?
Rest assured, the numbers add up. The remaining nine percent includes people who don’t plan to vote or are voting for third-party candidates. In fact, based on the leading third-party candidate, if Harris actually does pull off this political equivalent of parting the Red (State) Sea, she very well may owe that miracle to this guy:
That’s right, Kennedy may no longer have his shirt — or parts of his brain — but he does still have his name on Iowa’s ballot! And three percent of likely voters say they’re turning out to vote for him. Here’s what the total breakdown looks like, courtesy of the Des Moines Register:
Now, is it possible that Kennedy could he possibly be drawing some Harris voters, weighing her down, rather than Trump? Sure. Also, who cares!
But, even better: No!
The Register helpfully shared the following chart, showing that since Harris got into the race, both Trump and Kennedy have been sliding, while Harris has been the opposite of sliding:
Now, your excessively honest TFN must confess it thought Iowa was redder than it is. But it actually voted for Al Gore in 2000 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Since then, however, Iowa has been Trump country. So what happened?
Amazingly, no one from the Trump campaign has called Iowa a floating pile of garbage. And Trump hasn’t wished for Iowa to have guns in its face.
But Trump did end the federal right to abortion. And old ladies in Iowa are pissed.
Independent women — not affiliated with either party — back Harris by 28 points. In, and I can’t newsfuck this enough, Iofuckingwa.
But the real Iowan stars here are old people, who — remember — despite being over 65 are still considered human biologically and under U.S. law still qualify as people. And they’re backing Harris.
According to the Register, more than twice as many women voters 65 and over support Harris than Trump. The hard numbers are 63% Harris to 28% Trump. And this is in a comedically white state.
Harris is even leading among men 65 and over. Again, in Iowa, where whiteness goes to die! (More than 90% of the state is white, including just under 5% who identify as “two or more races.”) The old Iowa guys prefer Harris over Trump by 47% to 45%.
What does this mean? Nothing! Polls are morally and quantifiably bad in general and worser now than ever.
Election Day is what means something. But … there’s not a lot anyone can do between now and then, so it’s cherry-picking season and this Iowa poll is a big, juicy, red-state cherry I thought you’d enjoy. So cherry-pick away!
And don’t forget, since Roe v. Wade got dumped by Trump’s Supreme Court appointees, Democrats have been winning in red-state special elections. So if this is real, it’s not gonna be a total outlier. It’ll be a continuation of what we’ve seen elsewhere.
And crazier things have happened…
Has everyone really already forgotten that Tucker Carlson was attacked by a demon?
And don’t forget to join the TFN live-chat on Election Day!
I'm on the ground here in Iowa, and have been reporting on Iowa politics for 20 years. Democrats here have been busting their asses for Harris, and optimism here is fantastic. Truth? Harris has been as perfect of a candidate we can imagine, and Donald Trump is his own worst enemy. Convince me I am wrong. Now that the Iowa poll results are in, people are going to want to back a winner, and this will resonate nation-wide. Keep fighting for democracy!
Us old women remember fighting for abortion rights and winning with Roe. We are _not_ going back, not for our daughters, and not for our granddaughters! Do not underestimate us. We may be old, but we are battle-hardened.