New Report Cracks Mystery of Why Voters Trust Trump on the Economy

New data shed light on the nature of the Biden economy, and Harris's struggles with it

Oct. 18: Fed issues spending report … Oil prosecutions recommended … Judge schools DeSantis on abortion ads … Fox admits Harris interview fuckup …

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Former Pres. Donald Trump, a Wharton graduate, brought his staggering ignorance about economics in Chicago at the Economic Club of Chicago on Tuesday. (Screengrab / PBS video.)

Making things sound bad is a tradition of presidential elections for whichever party doesn’t hold the White House.

How this tradition is observed, of course, is asymmetrical as fuck. Under a Republican, Democrats will identify economically struggling segments of the population. (Flashback: Democrats used to say the word “poor” out loud so other people could hear it!)

Republicans, meanwhile, just say the economy is the worst it’s ever been ever. Always. Y’know, like the crime.

Conversely, Republicans will boast how Republican economies are the best ever. The way literal pandemics aren’t even a problem!

And, asymmetrically, Democrats with their empathy and their empiricism will not only acknowledge economic soft spots during even the most robust economies, they’ll do so with such vigor and emphasis that it feels like they’re trashing their own economy, no matter how strong it is overall.

The media, of course, will respond to what’s being said rather than what’s being.

All of which renders the country culturo-politically incapable of feeling like we have a good economy under a Democratic president. Especially when we’re losing our country and our burning, besieged cities are drowning in the blood of crime victims!

And, sure enough, polls show that Americans name the economy as their biggest priority. Not the climate change that’s actually drowning actual cities but that isn’t being fear-mongered by Democrats, Republicans, or the media.

And voters trust actor¹ and former Pres. Donald Trump — who once played a businessman on TV — to fix the economy, by 54% to 45%, Gallup found.²

This is all true even though all the usual metrics show that the Bidenonomy (Bideconomy? Bidonomy?) is roaring the way Biden himself no longer can.  Here’s Reuters:

“With less than a month to go before the U.S. elections, the American economy is in arguably in the best shape it has been prior to any presidential contest in recent history. Unemployment is at a more than two decade low. Gasoline prices aren’t as high as it may seem. Even inflation looks better.”

Hell, the Dow Jones closed at yet another new record high just yesterday. Thanks in part, CNBC says, to a new round of good economic data:

“September’s retail sales figures showed that consumer spending was still robust, with monthly spending rising 0.4%… Sales excluding autos shot up 0.5%, much hotter than the 0.1% forecast. Jobless claims for the week that ended Oct. 12 were also lower than expected.”

So wtf, America? Why so serious? Well, I have my own half-assed theory, which is a two-fold theory, effectively making it one theory. 

One: Economic metrics no longer capture everyday people’s economic health the way they used to. Meaning, the disproportionate wealth of rich people is skewing the data in a way it didn’t when we had sane marginal tax rates to limit the population of insanely rich people, and when stronger unions helped ensure more of corporate profits went to the workers.

Two: Momentary economic well-being doesn’t blind people to uncertainty about their economic futures.

Fortunately for my confirmation bias, there’s now reason to suspect an element of truth in one or both halves of my theorizing. Because buried in recent economic data was a report from the Federal Reserve on who’s fueling this economy.

Surprise: It’s rich folks!

The economy — and people’s livelihoods — depend on people buying shit. And here’s the Fed’s chart (yes, I actually waded into primary-source econo-jargon to suss this all out for you!) showing the growth rates of household spending, adjusted for inflation and for seasonal patterns like stocking up on Christmas shit. Spending increases overall are represented by the red line. The green line breaks out households with > $100K annual income, with gray representing $60K - $100K. All the way at the bottom is purple, with <$60K.

And it’s not just that purple (poor/poor-adjacent) is lowest, look at the separation! Inflation — which includes Big Oil price-gouging and the commodification of roof — hits the poor hardest because they’ve got the least leeway. Inflation doesn’t mean shit to rich people whose wages earnings pillagings are going up more than prices are — and who have enough cushion for inflation not to ding their spending.

This is why people say the economy is a priority. And this economic picture probably also has something to do with the growing political gender gap. And the reason it’s benefiting Trump, the con man and fake businessman who stiffs poor people and extracts money from them is that the campaign of Vice Pres. Kamala Harris isn’t talking significantly about poor people. 

As your dutiful TFN noted, Trump responded to Harris’s nomination acceptance speech by saying, “There are [false number redacted] people in poverty in the U.S., under their watch, and she doesn’t even talk about them!”

Trump won’t do anything good for poor people (even ending taxes on tips won’t really help and tariffs will opposite-help), but Trump has talked about poor people and he’s the only one talking (falsely, obvi) about blowing up the system (which is supporting him).

And now, thanks to the Fed’s numbers and handy chart, we know for sure that most people aren’t reaping the benefits of the Bidenoconomic boom.

Time to Arrest Oil Executives

*This item continues spoilers for the movie The Batman.

Big Oil executives should be investigated for criminally reckless endangerment of the planet, a new report concludes.

The group Public Citizen has previously argued that prosecutors can charge oil companies with homicide for specific deaths tied to climate change. Now a report co-authored with Fair and Just Prosecution argues that New York prosecutors should investigate Big Oil CEOs and based on the evidence consider bringing charges of reckless endangerment.

The report says that its findings apply to any jurisdiction with reckless endangerment statutes on the books.

And the authors conclude that there’s already enough evidence to bring charges. The Guardian reports that some New York elected officials agree. 

Those officials include state legislators, including the chair of the state Senate Judiciary Committee, and members of the New York City Council.

As the report recalls, oil executives were told in 1959 that “a 10% increase in carbon dioxide will be sufficient to melt the ice caps and submerge New York.” Continuing to pump carbon dioxide into the air anyway could constitute criminal behavior ranging from reckless endangerment to pretty much what The fucking Riddler did at the end of The Batman except not just to Gotham City.

Exxon knew forty years ago that emissions it was profiting from would, in Exxon’s words, “cause flooding on much of the US east coast.”

Public Citizen’s Senior Policy Counsel for climate Aaron Regunberg said, “Reckless endangerment occurs when someone engages in reckless conduct that risks injuring or killing another person.” But is that what these companies and their CEOs have done? “That’s exactly what these companies and their CEOs have done,” Regunberg said.

But prosecutors won’t bring these charges in a vacuum. They need to know they’ll survive in their political ecosystem. Which means with all the candidate forums and voter outreach right now, any politician can should be asked whether and how strongly they’ll support prosecutors who bring criminal charges against the criminals criminally killing the human ecosphere. Tell ‘em The Fucking News fucking sent you.

More Than a Third of Trump’s Swing-State Electors Are Big Lie Vets

A CNN analysis of the 2024 swing-state electors for former Pres. Donald Trump finds that more than a third of them are veterans of his big lie, just like the headline says.

CNN looked at the records of Trump electors for Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, identifying current Trump electors who had either posed as fake electors in 2020 or have denied the legitimacy of Pres. Joe Biden’s 2020 win. Here’s what CNN found:

• Arizona: One out of the 11 electors is a denier.

• Georgia: Five out of the 16 electors are deniers.

• Michigan: Six out of the 15 electors was a fake elector, six are deniers.

• Nevada: Two out of the six electors were fake electors, one is a denier.

• New Mexico: One out of the five electors was a fake elector.

• Pennsylvania: Five out of the 19 electors was a fake elector, two are deniers.

• Wisconsin: One of the ten electors is a denier.

Some of the fake electors, it’s worth noting, are still facing criminal charges for trying to steal the 2020 election.

Understandably, the first reaction to this may be shock and horror. But since TFN doesn’t do shock and horror, let’s un, as the kids say, pack this. First of all, only in Michigan do these people make up a majority. They’re outnumbered everywhere else. Secondly, there’s a very real chance that already facing charges for attempted election-stealing will make them less likely to try it again.

Most importantly, and CNN doesn’t really get into this, electors don’t really have any power qua electors. What matters is which electors the state and Congress certify as legitimate. And there we’ve made some changes. New federal law makes it harder for Congress to accept fake electors and gives the vice president less discretion to decide what to do.

(The reason for powering down the vice president was to make sure that future Vice President Mike Pences didn’t give in to hanging threats and certify bogus electors. The downside that I really haven’t seen anyone but me talk about, is that the new law ties present Vice President Kamala Harris’s hands at exactly the time when she may be the only thing standing between us and slates of fake electors certified by MAGA state officials. If the veep has less power to reject real elector slates, they’ve got less power to reject bogus ones.)

Toxic Masculinity Is Toxic to Everyone

Colin Gray was indicted for murder yesterday, one of the rare cases in which being a shitty dad will have real consequences for the shitty dad.

Gray didn’t pull the trigger in last month’s deadly Georgia school shooting, but Gray sure as shootin’ bought the trigger and gave it to his son. After law enforcement questioned him about a suspected threat by his son.

We’ve also learned that the warning signals about Gray’s son weren’t red flags, they were firehouse-red banners streaming in his face. The charges allege that Gray allowed his son “access to a firearm and ammunition after receiving sufficient warning that [his son] would harm and endanger the bodily safety of another.”

Gray’s son texted both his parents shortly before the shooting, alarming enough for the mom to call the school and ask them to find her son. Gray didn’t do shit. Then his son killed two students and two teachers.

Colin Gray, alleged shithead indicted on charges of being a fucking asshole. (Photo / Barrow County, GA, sheriff’s office.)

I’m generally anti-carceral state, but without sane gun bans on the books, way too many parents need to have the shit scared out of them by lengthy prison sentences for the negligent parents of kids with guns.

Judge Tells Stupid DeSantis, “It’s the First Amendment, Stupid”

I haven’t waded into the ongoing battle between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Florida TV stations because it’s so depressingly dumb and I usually prefer to share dumb shit when there’s at least some clarity. And we now have clarity that this dumb shit is stupid.

DeSantis had threatened TV stations not to air ads urging Florida voters to approve resolution #4 next month. The “Yes on 4” campaign is backing the ballot measure because it would codify abortion rights into the state Constitution, over the opposition of the gerrymandered state legislature.

At least one station pulled the ad, even as the legal wrangling over them continued.

The DeSantis administration argued that the “Yes on 4” ads are “false” and “dangerous,” which are also the trademarks of the presidential candidate DeSantis is supporting. (The state health department’s top lawyer quit last week, writing, “a man is nothing without his conscience” and mentally adding, “but I don’t have to tell you that, governor.”)

ANYHOO yesterday federal Judge Mark E. Walker issued an order forcing the state to back off its intimidation campaign. As Walker wrote, “To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it’s the First Amendment, stupid.”

He may have to dumb it down a little.

Fox Foxed Up Harris Gotcha Moment

For 24 hours after Fox’s interview with Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, Fox let its defenders go out into the world claiming that Bret Baier nailed destroyed I wanna report a murder whatever the kids are saying had a very good moment on the issue of Trump’s threats to deploy the military against Americans.

Then, last night, Baier cut Fox’s defenders off at the knees, admitting that he someone screwed up. Baier said last night that he meant to play a different clip proving Trump didn’t say it. In other words, Baier just exposed all those defenses of him as bullshit. Especially the ones that claimed he’s a serious journalist. Because now even he acknowledges his take was falwed.

This could also be seen as Baier trying to rehabilitate his own failed attempt to push back on Harris. I woulda done good on that math test if my calculator battery hadn’t died!

As others have pointed out, TV “journalists” all the time point out when the wrong clip has played — immediately after it happens. Plus, this thing was taped. Baier could have simply said, “I apologize, I wanted to play a different clip to help Trump, let’s see if we can show that one,” and then picked up the taping from there.

Or he could have not waited 24 hours to correct something he knew was wrong the moment it happened. I swear sometimes it’s like Fox News isn’t even a real news organization.

Hopefully, the foxup, and the fact it took them 24 hours to say anything about it, will put to bed any notion of Baier’s legitimacy that might have survived the fact that he tried to help Trump steal the election.

Five Quickies

• Yes, we’re getting more evidence in the case of Donald Trump v. Everything Good and Right today. Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan ruled yesterday in favor of special counsel Jack Smith, who wants to release his evidence ASAP. You may remember Smith’s filing earlier this month, laying out a new legal argument — and new evidence — for trying former Pres. Donald Trump for trying to steal the 2020 election even with the partial immunity the Supreme Court granted Trump. Well, the evidence we’re getting today is essentially the appendix to that filing, with lots of juicy details.

• Israel killed the head of Hamas yesterday, so now the war is over has a new rationale.

• A sneaky as fuck group of Texas legislators temporarily thwarted the planned execution of Robert Roberson, who last night was going to become the first person executed in a case of shaken-baby syndrome. His defenders say his two-year-old daughter died of other causes. Like, medical shit. But Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) obviously wasn’t going to prevent a Texas innovation in people-killing. And the right-wing Supreme Court was fine letting the execution proceed. But then those sneaky fucks in the state legislature saved Roberson’s life…by subpoenaing him to testify at a hearing about his case. A judge last night upheld the subpoena and said the state can’t kill him until after he testifies. Roberson will testify on Monday, despite hopes that the legislators would schedule the committee hearing for Thursday, Oct. 24, 2098.

• TFN has previously given shit to Never-Trump Republicans who were just fine letting Forever-Trump Republicans win seats in Congress. Well, now, some of them are stepping up, so TFN feels obliged to acknowledge it. Politico reports that former Reps. Liz Cheney (R-WY), Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), and Denver Riggleman (R-VA) are all now endorsing Democratic congressional candidates.

• Adam Wren is one of those reporters whose politics and biases can often be seen gleaming between the lines. Which may or may not be a good thing. After all, TFN’s politics can be seen like the fucking Bat-Signal. Anyhoo, Politico has this dumb thing where they declare who won the day, as if that were a thing. Wren writes that former Pres. Donald Trump won the day yesterday because Vice Pres. Kamala Harris skipped the Al Smith dinner. About which no one gives a shit.

Recommended Reading

• We’ve allowed the U.S. military to become continue as a breeding ground for authoritarianism. Much of it white-supremacist. Much of it theocratic. The AP does a deep dive into the numbers on radicalized military and ex-military. Turns out there might be something to this “enemy within” thing.

• Remember how that former Apprentice producer spilled the beans about how make-believe businessman Donald Trump couldn’t even count beans? Well, we’ve got a corroborating witness. Former NBC Chief Marketing Officer John D. Miller confesses that he chief marketed the shit out of Trump to convince viewers Trump was something he wasn’t: Namely, a successful businessman. Miller has details on exactly how they fooled the shit out of American viewers. And voters. And how he’s really really sorry!

TCB

I’m gonna give the podcast a shot today, so if you’re one of the (surprisingly many!) people listening to it, check out the podcast page a bit later and with luck there’ll be a cough-infested version of today’s TFN for ya.

Thanks for hanging in there with me as I got my big-baby ass through this cold. I should be back with the weekly The Fucking News segment on The Nicole Sandler Show on Monday at 5pm eastern.

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I recommend LOLGOP’s Substack for finding things you can do in the final days of the election and recommend BoltsMag.org for good reporting on lower-profile races. Most of all, TFN recommends keeping calm and carrying on.

Go get ‘em, kids! And give yourself a restorative weekend. Remember, even if you’re super-cool, you can still enjoy fall foliage. Just, y’know, ironically.

1. See today’s Recommended Reading!

2. Obviously, sexism, racism, and tribalism play a part in these numbers, too.