Shite of the Union
Democrats split on how to respond
Mar. 4: Dems to signal opposition tonight … Trump to go heavy on immigration (where he’s failing) … Poll shows Americans reject Trump and the things he’s Trumping … Trump begins stupicidal tariffs …
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No one is obliged to watch tonight’s State of the Union speech that isn’t officially a State of the Union speech1. Hell, some congressional Democrats won’t be showing up. (TFN will do either a live-chat or maybe a live video thing. Not sure which yet, so please stay tuned!)
And those Democrats who do show up tonight haven’t settled on one unified tactic for responding. Some will wear thematic attire…
The Democratic Women’s Caucus plans to wear pink (let’s see some pink-adorned dudes in solidarity, Dems!)
Women in the Congressional Black Caucus are discussing wearing black.
And expect to see some blue and yellow in solidarity with Ukraine.
The Democratic response will be delivered by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). The emphasis is expected to be on the economy (see below for why). Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY) will give an address in Spanish. The Working Families Party will be represented in remarks from Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-CA).
Republicans are likely to get diminished and humiliated to their face. Not with typical name-calling, but in the absence of a traditional presidential ask. Typically in these speeches, presidents ask Congress to do something. But Pres. Donald Trump believed he could do what he wanted before he was president, so who needs Congress?
Imagine how feckless and useless Republicans will be if Trump effectively ignores them, failing to ask them to do anything, failing to ask them for permission for anything. I suspect he will ask for…something. Most likely tax cuts and something budget-ish.
But even in his first term, he asked less of Congress in these speeches than other presidents did. So there’s no guarantee he won’t just completely sideline them.
And Republicans could be further infantilized by sitting there, applauding for their own irrelevance, in contrast to the Democrats. Reportedly, Democrats are considering injecting themselves forcefully into the proceedings, possibly with some sort of disruptive action.
No one asked your pragmatic TFN, but I’m agnostic about tactics. Whatever works. Maybe disruption will turn off too many voters craving normalcy. Or anguished Americans need to see representatives representing.
Some Democrats reportedly are discussing a coordinated walk-out if Trump goes after transgender kids.
Reportedly, some Democrats think disruption that just comes off as anti-Trump doesn’t do any good. The Democratic Policy and Communications Committee advised members to bring guests personifying the damage Trump is doing to the country. Laid-off federal workers, for instance. A California firefighter. Some are weighing bringing props such as egg cartons or Constitutions.
On the other hand, you know how old-fashioned TFN is, and we all know the old saying: Laughter is the best medicine. Imagine if Democrats just…laughed at Trump. Roared at the transparent lies. Giggled at the embarrassing self-aggrandizement and emotional need.
At a time when Trump dominates corporate media with demonstrations of strength, what would puncture that better than Democrats refusing to bend the knee, laughing in his face. What would announce more loudly the resilience of democracy than defying and infuriating Trump and for once exploiting his helplessness, stuck at the podium, with nothing to do but glower and yap.
Trump wants to believe the whole country’s behind him. The moment he can construct an impenetrable bubble of affirmation, that’s when he’s at his most dangerous, imagining consent for whatever violations he wishes.
That’s why, I humbly think, it’s important to deny him the perception of total acquiescence. Hence, laughing at him. But also, shaping reality online: Refuting his lies for everyone to see and denying him the popular support he could use to justify further authoritarianism.
For us to do that, it’s important to understand…the shite of the union.
People Hate This Shite
We don’t know what Trump will say tonight. There’s a good chance he has no idea yet. We do know that yesterday he vowed, “TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG. I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!” That would be big!
Shockingly, Trump’s job approval numbers are higher than they ever were during his first term. But that’s the best news out there for Trump, and it’s got serious downsides.
The best finding for Trump’s job approval that the Marist poll ever clocked during his first term was 44%. Today it’s…45%.
His disapproval stands at 49%. In other words — in the 6,000 years since God made both the Earth and the fake evidence that it’s 4.5 billion years old — it has literally never been true that more Americans approved of Trump’s performance of president than disapproved. That’s quite a feat. And by “eat” I mean “ail.”
Why are Trump’s numbers better now? Last time, he took over from a popular Democrat (sorry, Joe). Last time, Republicans were more fractured (sorry, democracy).
That said, 45% is still shitty!
And on the key metric — today, anyway — of the state of the union, Trump is underwater. Fifty-three percent of the country say the state of the union isn’t strong or isn’t very strong. Only 47% say it’s at least strong.
That’s better than Pres. Joe Biden had, but it’s still not most of the country. And it’s before most of America has directly felt the consequences of Trump’s shambolism.
So let’s look at who’s still supporting Trump, and then at where America’s waking up. And therefore where he’s vulnerable.
Who Supports Trump
The pro-Trump coalition is, because irony, intersectional. Household wealth alone yields only a slight divide on whether Trump’s changes are for the better: Of those making less than $50,000 annually, 48% agree, compared to 44% of those making more.
What supercharges the rift is adding in whiteness and maleness and education. Only 41% of white, male college grads believe Trump’s changes are for the better. But 62% believe that, when we take away the college degree.
That’s a real divide, culturally and otherwise. But the biggest divide, by far, is one you likely won’t hear much about today, as your ever-rueful TFN has rued before. It’s religion.
Seventy-four percent of white evangelical Christians believe that Trump’s changes are for the better. Now it ought not be surprising that people who believe in magic got duped by a con man with the backing of America’s wealthy and an entire “news”-looking media ecosystem. But, there are opportunities even here.
For one thing, 21% of white evangelical Christians believe Trump is changing things for the worse. One out of five! That’s pretty good, and that’s a base to build on.
And it’s important not to demonize those 74% who support him. Blinded to their humanity, we risk missing Trump’s vulnerability.
A ton of those 74%, for instance, have spent years invested in fighting hunger, giving to Christian charities and supporting Christian missionaries. Trump is demolishing that entire world, starving and ensickening the people American Christians have sought for decades to keep alive.
Even Christian charities are getting, uh, crucified. Which hurts. And it’s not just Catholic charities, it’s also World Vision, an evangelical giant.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised “life-saving” programs would be spared. He was lying or at least wrong, because internal emails and a whistleblower revealed that Trump appointees unspared them. The estimated future costs:
1,000,000 kids untreated for severe acute malnutrition.
As many as 166,000 people dead from malaria.
30% increase in tuberculosis cases.
200,000 more kids paralyzed by polio.
Sure, some white evangelicals will shrug it off however helps them sleep at night. But some won’t... if they hear it as concern for the victims rather than as hate for Trump. So hide the hate!
Now, where else is Trump vulnerable?
America Disagrees with Trump
Immigration
Okay, America doesn’t disagree with Trump on everything. Immigration remains his strongest issue. For now.
And Trump reportedly will push this issue tonight. Guests are expected to include family members of people victimized by undocumented immigrants instead of getting victimized by Americans and corporations the way Jesus and Abraham intended.
But even on immigration, Trump’s approach doesn’t have majority support, just a plurality. Only 47% consider his immigration policies a change for the better, while 43% think it’s worse and, crucially, 9% see it as no change at all, which is probably about right.
I suspect it’ll take a while, but eventually even Trump supporters may realize that not much is changing. For instance, Bloomberg reports that in late February, the number of detentions (which, unlike deportations, soared when Trump took office) actually started trending back down.
That may not lead to a huge MAGA swing toward Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), but with deportations actually down, the dawning realization that MAGA got conned likely will at least depress the enthusiasm of depressed older white dudes for their favorite not-exactly-white con man.
The more attention Trump calls to immigration tonight, the greater the likelihood people will pay attention to the results.
And, again, this is the best Trump’s got. Everything else is downhill.
Government
Sixty percent of the country agrees with this statement: “Most federal government employees are essential to the functioning of the United States.”
Only 40% disagree, and who knows how many of them are thinking of Elon Musk? Even white evangelicals are split on this. Only 52% of them think the country can function effectively without most federal employees. Forty-six percent think we need those workers.
And most Americans — 55% — think the staffing and funding cuts will do “more harm than good.” That’s before Trump has really gotten started and before we start seeing the real impacts to most people’s lives.
This, again, is another vulnerability we can press to rally opposition to these devastating staff cuts.
Plus, whatever Trump says about cutting government is likely to end up side-by-side in the news with wildfires currently burning through the Carolinas and Georgia.
And with the severe weather hitting much of the country today and tomorrow in the form of possible flooding and tornado damage. The forecasting of which may not have been affected by Trump’s cuts. Yet.
When you make a huge deal of slashing government, even disaster losses that would have been unavoidable under Democrats are gonna get listed in the column labeled: Because of Trump cuts.
The Trumpconomy
Pretty much everything Trump is doing — not just today’s new tariffs — is freaking out the people who hoped Trump would enhance their ability to extract more and more money from us. And that’s starting to filter into the national consciousness.
Again, huge vulnerability here on arguably Trump’s signature issue. As a pretend-businessman, he campaigned on the economy probably about as much as on immigration — but people cared a lot more about the economy, which was, after all, a key part of why they cared about immigration.
Well, check this out: Only 17% of the country expects grocery prices to go down in the next six months. A majority, 57%, expect an increase. In other words, fewer than half of Trump’s own voters think he’ll succeed at lowering the grocery prices he’s not trying to lower. Huge vulnerability.
And the clock is ticking on how long Trump can blame Pres. Joe Biden for the price of eggs that were laid after Biden was safely back home in his Delaware napping chair.
In fact, most people probably don’t even know this — and even your everything-reading TFN missed it for days — but Trump has already raised the price of gas.
Last week, because Venezuela didn’t come get its deportees fast enough for Trump’s highness, Trump blocked the country’s avenues for selling oil here. After Trump announced the new policy, gas prices here rose by one percent.2
And now Trump has imposed new tariffs on America’s three biggest trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China. As Aaron Rupar noted, Trump just talking about his new tariffs shoved the stock market under water yesterday and held its head there for a swirly which was documented and quantified even on Fox’s air with a box on the lower right corner of the screen showing Wall Street throwing up in its foie gras with every new Trump syllable.
And this is before the full impact of the retaliatory tariffs comes into focus. Canada is talking about slapping fees or taxes or whatever you wanna call tariffs on U.S. goods from Trump states.
That means Florida oranges will be more expensive in Canada, along with Ohio appliances. Possibly coffee from Louisiana, home of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
And those are just some examples of Canadian tariffs that will lower sales of U.S. goods north of the dangerous no-man’s land that protects us from Canada.
Canada’s also talking about making it more expensive for U.S. states to get oil, gas, and even electricity from them. A Canadian trade group, Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, predicts the U.S. tariffs on parts imported from Canada will cripple the U.S. auto industry in about a week.
Tonight, Trump reportedly will try to downplay high prices, and focus on the alleged payoff: Increased manufacturing, jobs, and higher wages that tariffs will magically make happen. He will tout recent announcements of big corporate investments here in the U.S.
It’s important to recognize the substantial bullshit ratio. Some of these investments were in the works beforehand. But more importantly, some of the investments themselves are bullshit.
When I was working at The Young Turks, one of the first things we drilled into was supposed corporate investments in U.S. manufacturing. Apple, for instance, may well get name-checked by Trump tonight for its “new” planned investments.
But Trump tried to float a big Apple investment during his first term, too, and at TYT, my team — Alex Kane and Matthew Cunningham, specifically — chewed that rotten Apple to shreds. It was bullshit. It just takes a while to figure out in what way it’s bullshit.
And we’re less than two weeks from the potential economic devastation of a government shutdown. Congressional Republicans are talking about passing a short-term funding bill that would keep spending at the current levels, but as Democrats are pointing out…
…what the fuck are the current levels?
Trump hasn’t been spending the money that the last spending bill said the government must spend. So why should Democrats agree to any spending bill without some mechanism in place for ensuring that this law will be followed?
Without Democrats on board, Johnson may be especially vulnerable to pressure from the far right, which might cause “moderate” Republicans to bail, leaving Republicans unable to pass…anything. At least until the last minute, which typically is when GOP epistemology kicks in and they throw some half-assed thing together that pisses off everyone.
Ukraine
Even before Trump froze aid to Ukraine yesterday, only 34% of the country thought America was giving too much aid. Thirty-seven percent wanted more funding while 28% thought the level was about right.
Expect a keen focus on how Trump handles Russia in his speech tonight. The administration has suggested it doesn’t want to criticize Pres. Vladimir Putin and jeopardize getting him into peace talks. Which actually strikes me as a worthy goal.
But if Trump gift-wraps anything new for Putin, that could weaken Republican support in some quarters. As Axios inventories, Trump has already:
Sought to loosen sanctions on Russia
Suspended cyber-attacks on Russia (which, I mean, shouldn’t we not be cyber-attacking anycyberone?)
Pushed for Ukrainian elections, which would violate wartime constitutional provisions
Voted against a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression
Suspended weapons shipments to Ukraine.
Stubbornly distinguishing between correlation and causation, I’ve yet to subscribe to the notion that Trump is Putin’s puppet. And if Putin can somehow be bought off by Trump concessions (or “weakness”), resulting in a just peace for Ukraine, your usually soft-pressed TFN would be hard-pressed to quarrel with it.
Gaza
A stunningly high/stupid 28% of the country supports the United States of America “taking ownership of Gaza.” Never mind that this would violate all the laws, ranging from mail fraud to petty larceny to international war crimes. Never mind that this would inevitably mean U.S. troops deploying to and dying in the Middle East. Never mind the cost in dollars. Never mind how it would inflame that perennially inflamed region. Never mind the human cost to the displaced population. Oh, wait, those are actually the things we should mind.
And 71% of the country opposes it. Including 49% of Republicans.
Education
Even people without college educations support the Department of Education. Sixty percent of those without a college education oppose getting rid of the department. So do 68% of everyone else. All told, only 37% of the country — less than Trump’s base — support killing the department.
My guess is Trump won’t vow an outright execution tonight, but a dismantling/neutering likely to cheer his base without awakening the slumbering opposition.
Health
It’s quite possible that more Americans today than at any point in history can correctly name the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. That’s because he’s Robert What the F. Kennedy, Jr., brain-worm victim, victimizer of women, and avid roadkill collector.
Americans are seeing what’s happening to our vaccine regimen. Millions saw the news that the administration canceled a meeting to plan the next flu season vaccine.
And yesterday, just two weeks after Kennedy hired him, his top spokesperson is quitting because his boss is Robert What the F Kennedy, Jr. Reportedly, Asst. Secretary for Public Affairs Thomas Corry, a veteran of the first Trump administration, quit over recurring clashes with Kennedy’s top advisor, Senior Counselor Stefanie Spear, the former head of a health-care nonprofit renowned epidemiologist doctor nurse nurse practitioner occasional customer at urgent-care clinics Kennedy campaign press secretary, environmental activist, graphic-design company owner, and one of Cleveland Magazine’s 2012 Most Interesting People in Cleveland.
HHS responded to Corry’s departure by announcing that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will be on the ground in Texas for the measles outbreak today. It started in January.
One HHS insider told Politico that Corry was “the one adult in the room.” “The room,” in this case, being the United States federal agency charged with us not dying.
And for all the talk about Kennedy mounting a counter-offensive to the corporate war on our health, that war is fought — or not fought — on multiple fronts. And HHS can’t do it alone.
But don’t, for instance, expect Trump to brag tonight about the Justice Department dropping the federal lawsuit against the Denka Performance Elastomer plant in Louisiana.
Because dropping that lawsuit means Denka will be free to continue emitting chloroprene. That’s a potential carcinogen found in the air around the plant at levels 14 times the safe limits for lifetime exposure, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, which has not yet revised its guidance to declare the chloroprene levels 14 times as awesome. Finally, Trump will make Cancer Alley Cancer Alley again.
So let’s spread the word at least 14 times the safe limit.
TCB
NEWSFUCKER DU JOUR Today’s featured Newsfucker may have upgraded to a paid subscription, but they’re also shy. They’ve allowed me to share their reasons for upgrading, but not their identity. So say hello — gently! — to our anonymous Newsfucker du jour:
Am I the only one dying to know who recommended TFN to them? Anyway, I love hearing from those who get The Fucking News through their ears — and I am still working on upgrading the audio quality!
If that matters to you, and if you can afford it, you can help make that upgrade happen with a donation, a gift subscription for a fellow Newsfucker, or upgrading your own subscription to paid.
UH, NEWSFUCKERS? …WE DID IT! I don’t know how long it’s going to last. And at this point I’m assuming everyone fired from CNN and MSNBC is gonna start a Substack and push TFN down the rankings, but for right now, for one brief shining moment, you did it, Newsfuckers.
TFN just cracked the top 100 political newsletters on Substack.
That’s because of you. I see you sharing TFN here on Substack and on social media. I hear from you directly about telling your friends and fellow Newsfuckers-to-be. You, collectively, are the reason this is working. The reason I’m on track to make TFN a sustainable enterprise this year if we can keep growing at our current rate. Thank you.
TAKING ACTION Upcoming days listed for action/inaction:
March 7-14: Amazon Blackout — No Amazon, no Whole Foods, no Prime orders, and TFN is gonna throw in the Washington Post, too.
March 14: National Strike and march on Washington.
March 21-28: Nestlé Blackout (water wars, child labor)
March 28: Economic Blackout #2
April 7-13: Walmart Blackout (‘nuff said)
April 18: Economic Blackout #3
April 21-27: General Mills Blackout (no idea why, but sign me up on general principles)
Resources
CONNECTING Come say hi on Bluesky, Mastodon or Spoutible!
Go get ‘em, kids! When we’re in it, we win it.
TFN creator and writer Jonathan Larsen co-created Up w/ Chris Hayes and wrote for Countdown with Keith Olbermann at MSNBC, helped launch CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360° and Air America Radio, and has also worked at The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Young Turks.
“in the 6,000 years since God made both the Earth and the fake evidence that it’s 4.5 billion years old” lol and still laughing. Thanks, it is good medicine!
Yay top 100!!!!!!