Tariffs Fuck-Update #1 of ?
The Trump tariffs are about to plunge the Trumpconomy into his second Trumpcession
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TFN did a mega-dive on tariffs yesterday, just prior to Pres. Donald Trump signing them into law. You can check out all the background and context for this rank absurdity here.
In his first term, Trump coasted on Pres. Barack Obama’s successes and didn’t start killing Americans and tanking the economy until his last year in office. Now, instead of coasting on Pres. Joe Biden’s reset, Trump’s picking up where he left off and blowing Americans out of the sky and tanking the economy … in just his second week.
Here are the new tariffs, which Trump ordered last night and which begin kicking in on Tuesday:
Everything from Mexico: 25%
Canadian oil: 10%
Canadian everything else: 25%
Everything from China: 10%
Trump’s order includes a retaliation clause, threatening increased tariffs if any of those countries retaliate, which all three say they are, in some form. Mexico’s being vague. China’s complaining to the World Trade Organization. Canada’s slapping tariffs on U.S. shit.
In short, Trump just started a trade war, on three fronts, with our three biggest trading partners. Even the guy we’re not supposed to compare anyone to only went to war on two fronts. Imagine one-upping the guy we don’t compare anyone to!
(China, it strikes me, has good reason not to fight these tariffs too hard. Sure, the U.S. is a huge market, but the longer this goes on, the more time China has to pick off Canada and Mexico as trade partners … and to stake claims in supply chains around the world.)
The world’s money bros have already rendered their verdicts, betting heavily on the candidate they voted for being an idiot. Hedge-fund assholes are gambling billions on shorting U.S. stocks, predicting something like a full-on crash.
Bets on U.S. stocks falling outnumber bets on them rising by 10 to one.
Flavio Volpe, the president of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, told Politico yesterday that thanks to Trump’s tariffs, “The industry will shut down in the U.S. and Canada and Mexico within a week.” Not the Canadian automotive parts industry. The North American car-making industry.
Here’s what corporate America, the rich dimwits who elected this guy, have to say about the thing they thought Trump didn’t really mean so they elected him because they liked the cut of his jib:
U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Tariffs “won’t solve these problems [fentanyl and immigration], and will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains.”
Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, now known as the Dispirited Council of the United States: “…deeply concerned that U.S. tariffs on imported spirits from Canada and Mexico will significantly harm all three countries.”1
Western Growers: “…rival growers of specialty crops outside of the U.S. will move quickly to seize the new business opportunities created by these tariffs to sell into the Canadian, Mexican and Chinese marketplaces. Their success in doing so could permanently displace American growers from these key markets.”
American Petroleum Institute: “We will continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions [which Trump didn’t give them] that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation’s energy advantage and support American jobs.”
American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: “We are hopeful a resolution can be quickly reached with our North American neighbors so that crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals are removed from the tariff schedule before consumers feel the impact.”
A ton of U.S. refineries depend on steady supplies of Canadian and even Mexican oil. Sixty percent of oil imported into the U.S. comes from Canada, with another seven percent from Mexico.
Switching to American or any other oil isn’t that easy. Refineries are configured for the unique properties of the specific oil they refine. Some may have to shutter entirely if there’s no demand for the Trumpishly expensive oil. Either way, gas prices are likely going up.
The Oil Price Information Service told the New York Times that 25% tariffs on oil would mean 15 to 20 cents more per gallon at the pump. (Trump’s tariffs are 25% on Mexican oil, but 10% on Canadian).
As Heatmap put it:
So some U.S. refineries may shut down, if only temporarily. And that’ll leave workers idle with no work except as extras in Taylor Sheridan’s newest series about a tough old white guy (played by a former movie star) who’s beset by the women and non-white dudes around him with their fantasies of competence which turn to ash in the searing heat of the blazing sun that is his infallibility with the only exception being his weakness for that crazy, hot, 30-something lady with zero body fat who lusts insatiably after grouchy septuagenarians.
At least last night the White House finally answered the long-standing question of what legal bullshit Trump would cite to justify these probably illegal tariffs. Here’s the White House statement:
“The extraordinary threat posed by illegal [sic] aliens [sic] and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.”
Newsfuckers already know that undocumented immigrants actually lower the American crime rate because Americans commit more crimes than they do. So what about the drugs? We got into that a bit in yesterday’s deep dive. Here’s another hit.
Overdose deaths in America saw a historic drop last year. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) claimed last year that pressure on drug cartels led to less-potent fentanyl. Yay, less-potent fentanyl! Thanks, Pres. Biden, for ending the national emergency Trump is now citing!
In fact, as of October 2024, drug-overdose deaths had fallen back down to where they were at, hmmm, the end of the presidency before Biden’s, whoever’s that might have been. In fact, as you can see — because I found a chart! — the biggest rise in drug deaths began in the last year of a certain someone’s previous presidency, coinciding at least in part with a certain pandemic I covild name.
Trump also explicitly ended an existing loophole that allowed small packages, anything valued at less than $800, to go through duty-free. Now, as economics writer Joey Politano noted, “If a mom sends a birthday gift from Windsor to Detroit they’ve gotta pay 25% tariffs on it lol. Just unimaginable stupidity.”
It also means a ton more work for U.S. customs. Y’know, embiggening government.
And most of all this economic despair isn’t even factoring in the retaliation.
Canada’s going hardest, slapping a 25% tax on everything coming in from the U.S.
And some of the provinces are getting snarky about it.
Ontario is banning U.S. liquor entirely. British Columbia is removing from its shelves any American-made liquor that comes from a red state. Or that even has a red-state brand. (h/t)
Oh, yeah? Well, so, who cares? Your mama, eh!
Also, that just means there’s more for us. And we’re gonna need at least a two-year supply of Jack Daniels.
Canada’s former Finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, who’s now vying to lead the Liberal Party, has an even more surgical tariff in mind. Before the tariffs were imposed, she proposed responding with a tariff targeted specifically at Teslas.
Electrical-vehicle sales make up 18% of the Canadian auto market, and Tesla is the big leader. For now.
“We need to look through and say who is supporting Trump and how can we make them pay a price for a tariff attack on Canada,” Freeland said. (h/t)
Of course, other countries will happily stock those shelves. And those new supply lines might not reverse themselves if/when Trump finally backs down. Why would anyone take the risk of Trump Trumping again?
Every country in the world right now is looking for non-American suppliers just because who knows where Trump might strike next. Add that to ending America’s foreign aid and Trump just might achieve the decades-old old-hippie dream of ending American soft power and corporate hegemony around the world.
PS: TFN is immediately slapping a 25% credulity tariff on mainstream reporting until they stop smuggling bullshit across the border of my fucking eyeballs.
Check out what TFN’s border patrol nabbed last night.
Politico reported that “A few groups, however, do support the duties.” Prithee enlighten us, Politico? Who are these few duty-heads?
“The Coalition for a Prosperous America, a business group representing manufacturers who welcome protection against foreign competitors, praised the move.”
Oh, is that who the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA, because CSA was a little too on the enslaved nose) is? A business group who don’t like, uh, free markets?
Because TFN would like to add a skosh more detail about the CSA. Like the fact that they were literally on the advisory board for Project 2025. (h/t)
And exactly which major, well-known, not-at-all-fringe massive corporations belong to the CSA? Let’s start with the allegedly real ones, shall we? CSA represents movers and shakers like Seqens, Phlow, and Amodex (“Many Stains, One Solution”). Those ae actual real companies. Plus, we assume, CSA also includes The Tyrell Corporation, Cyberdyne, and Acme Anvils and Jet Packs.
Membership aside, exactly how credible is this modern-day CSA? In 2022 the National Taxpayer’s Union’s Bryan Riley analyzed CSA claims about tariffs. Among them was the CSA claim that tariffs would create 9.9 million jobs. As Riley notes, “That would be quite an achievement, considering the fact that there are only 6 million unemployed people in the United States.”
And does Politico inform us of any groups other than CSA in that cohort of the “few groups, however, [who] do support the tariffs”? No? Okay, then.
Jonathan Larsen is a longtime TV news producer and journalist who’s worked at MSNBC, CNN, ABCNews, The Daily Show, Air America Radio, and The Young Turks.
This was in a joint statement with the Mexican Chamber of the Tequila Industry and Spirits Canada.
Haven’t even read this yet, but I wanted to thank you for posting through the weekend. As the hits keep coming my first thought is “I can’t wait to hear Larson’s take on this.”
Aaahhh, TFN on the rocks for breakfast.