Aging Democratic Establishment Forgets to Cover Left Flank
July 9: Trump shifts GOP left … Poll suggests strongest Dem ticket … New Gaza death toll … Biden to meet with progressives …
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First, former Pres. Donald Trump disavowed Project 2025, the far-right, cryptoChristofascist agenda for America’s dystopian, pre-Rapture future. And Democrats pounced on that denial as proof that he’s a liar. In case anyone wasn’t clear on that score.
With fading vision focused myopically on the threat that Project 2025 poses for 2025, Democrats seem to have missed the threat it poses to Democrats in 2024. For those just tuning in, the threat is that Project 2025 is to Trump’s right. Meaning: There’s something more extreme than Trump. Meaning Trump is now seen pushing against going too far right, positioning himself to the left of his plan-making, cryptochristofascist, crypto-bro backers.
And yet, no one moved to guard Pres. Joe Biden’s left flank. Democrats just used the denial as proof that Trump lies. Which, yes.
Despite the obvious warnings, there’s been no attempt to counter Trump’s efforts to win over voters in the middle and even on the left. Even though he’s got a consistent track record he can point to on many of these issues.
Then, on Monday, Trump more-officially moved left again. A lot.
The New York Times got its collective, publicly traded hands on the Trump-approved draft of the Republican Party’s 2024 platform. It shows Trump dropping his least popular shit right on top of Democratic political aspirations. (h/t)
Aborted: The 2020 platform’s “fundamental right to life” of “the unborn child.”
Newly conceived: “access to birth control and IVF.”Gone: “...traditional marriage… [between] one man and one woman.” (Trump is legendarily opposed to any policy restricting him to one woman.)
Retired: 2016’s vow to consider cutting Social Security.
On the job: 2024’s pledge to “not cut one penny” from Social Security or Medicare.1Cut: Reining in the national debt.
Added: Cutting wasteful spending.
The party’s platform committee yesterday approved the draft by a vote of 84 platform committee members in favor against just 18 future ex-platform committee members.
In other words, Trump is Democrats’ worst fear: Someone flexible enough not to be America’s worst fear.
For years, Democrats have made the mistake of treating Trump like an ideologue instead of an id-ologue. [New word, you’re welcome].
One danger in investing emotionally in proving that Candidate X is “good” or “evil” is missing other implications of their words and deeds. Like their potential to appeal to low-information and/or sociopathic voters.
And one risk in that is Democratic credibility; Trump has said for weeks now that states should decide on abortion. He’s said he doesn’t support a national abortion ban. (But does support the national abortion that his second term would represent.)
And yet, Democrats are portraying Trump as someone who gives a shit about abortion rather than as someone who’s playing his evangelical voters. Who in all of American could possibly want abortion safe, legal, cheap, convenient and frequent more than rapist, serial philanderer and noted progeny-disdainer Donald J. Trump?
He has zero record of opposing abortion before running as a Republican. He says what he thinks will help him win, because that’s what he believes in. And if Democrats keep treating Trump as Satan incarnate rather than an id incarnate — who craves popular approval, believes in nothing other than himself, and has no scruples about lying not only to the people but to his own people — then he’s a lot more likely to win. Whoever the Democratic nominee is.
Not unrelatedly, new polling out last night shows support for abortion rights rising. Only three in ten people believe abortion should be illegal in most cases. Seven in ten say it should be legal in most cases. And six in ten say that pregnant people should be allowed to do what they want with their uteruses without the government judging their motives.
Polling IDs Strongest Ticket Against Trump
A new poll out this morning shows only one hypothetical Democratic ticket close to beating former Pres. Donald Trump by more than the margin of error.
I hope you’re sitting down.
You don’t want to be eating, either.
Maybe get smelling salts?
The new poll, courtesy of Politico, tested Trump against Pres. Joe Biden and several hypothetical Democratic nominees.
Biden, even after his disastrous debate, remains effectively tied, with 42% to Trump’s 43%.
Besting Trump (but still statistically tied) is Vice Pres. Kamala Harris with 42% to Trump’s 41%.
The strongest Democratic showing in the poll does include Harris on the hypothetical ticket, but still as veep, not leading the ticket. No, in this hypothetical configuration, the best-performing Democratic slate identified by the poll, it’s Harris still at vice president, and, running for president, ladies and gentlemen…
Hillary Clinton, winner of more votes in 2016 than Trump and from the way she’s treated in the media, presumably the least popular person in the world. The poll finds that the Clinton-Harris ticket would get 43% of the vote compared to just 40% for the Trump-Lickspittle ticket.
This is, of course, bullshit. But I share it in the spirit of blowing your minds and messing with you just a wee bit. It doesn’t actually mean anything. For one thing, the polling doesn’t even take into account how Clinton’s popularity would plummet once she was the official nominee and the media could focus on her emails.
Trump Declares Harris the Democratic Presidential Nominee
Former Pres. Donald Trump yesterday said that Pres. Joe Biden is dropping out of the race, and that Vice Pres. Kamala Harris is replacing him. The claim came in an email, by which I mean a fundraising email.
If you haven’t been getting them, fundraising emails from both parties are wildly, scandalously deceptive and misleading and alarmist. It’s a real problem. Anyway, point is that Trump’s already treating Harris like the presumptive re-nominee.
And with good reason. She’s the default. She’s Biden’s running mate and the incumbent second-most-powerful person. Of all the potential candidates, she alone would have legal access to the Biden campaign’s war chest. And there’s a growing focus on her as the potential nominees. (I have an old case she handled as California attorney general I want to discuss at some point. Deep tease!)
Hamas’ Ignored Gaza Death Tolls Replaced by Credible Ignored Gaza Death Tolls
The most reliable death toll out of Gaza has come from health officials there, who answer to Hamas, and so it’s been ignored or dismissed or rejected by people who really, really don’t want people to think that Israel has killed tens of thousands of civilians there. But now, a new, independent, established, credible, respected source has generated a staggering new death that can also be ignored. (h/t)
The Lancet, the British medical journal, applied formulas for indirect deaths from past conflicts to the known Gaza numbers. Bullets and bombs, in short, kill only a fraction of the fatalities in war. These so-called indirect deaths continue for years after the fighting stops. (Relatedly, can the fighting please stop?)
The causes of indirect deaths due to war include disease, starvation, dehydration, and exposure from lack of adequate shelter. All of which are exacerbated when those not killed by bullets and bombs are trapped in the combat zones.
Typically, the number of indirect dead is at least triple or as much as 15 times greater than the number of bullet/bomb fatalities. The journal offers what it calls a conservative estimate of — quadrupling the 37,396 combat fatalities as of mid-June — 186,000 dead now or in the future due to the current conflict. About eight percent of Gaza’s total population.
The Lancet notes that the Gaza Health Ministry numbers have been rejected by Israeli officials…and are considered credible by the U.N., the World Health Organization…and Israeli intelligence officials.
Second Gentleman Gets COVID Second Time
Vice Pres. Kamala Harris’s husband, Douglas Emhoff, won a second term of COVID in testing this weekend. Emhoff has been experiencing mild symptoms, his office announced Sunday.
Harris, who has been traveling a lot, tested negative. Emhoff got COVID despite the fact that Pres. Joe Biden dealt with that whole COVID thing years ago. Also despite that fact, we’re in the middle of another wave and lots of people seem to be getting it.
Four Quickies About More Biden Shit
POLLS Good news/bad news for Pres. Joe Biden and possibly Homo sapiens. Good news: Polls show only slight erosion of his numbers since his debate with former Pres. Donald Trump. Bad news: That’s because voters already believed Biden incapable of doing the job through 2028 before they saw his debate performance. (Gift link.)
BIDEN’S DONE…TALKING Pres. Joe Biden told donors, fundraisers, and bundlers Monday that the time for discussing the debate is over, even though that’s not how democracy works. “We’re done talking about the debate,” he said, referring to the terror that has gripped the party since his disastrous debate performance. Biden did not rule out continuing to talk about his disastrous Friday interview about his disastrous debate performance.
NOT DONE WRITING As congressional Democrats returned from their enormous, European-style July 4 weekend yesterday, they were greeted by a letter from Pres. Joe Biden. He assured members that he is not too old to run or do the job if he wins. The letter presumably was written with quill pen on parchment.
ALSO NOT DONE TALKING Pres. Joe Biden’s letter failed to put congressional Democrats at ease. So Biden’s continuing his campaign to continue his campaign. Despite being done talking, he’s expected to meet with what Politico describes as “rattled” progressives. Aka most progressives. The full Democratic House caucus is meeting today and it’s a safe bet they’re not done talking about Biden. He’s also expected to top the menu at today’s Senate Democratic lunch.
TCB
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Go get ‘em, kids. You got this.
I just don't see any daylight at all between Trump, the Trump National Committee née RNC, and Project 2025 and none of them are softening on abortion. Donald's a single-issue candidate in that he only wants to stay out of jail. The rest of these jagoffs use him to make their demonic dreams come true. See HC Richardson: https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/july-8-2024 and Lisa Rubin: https://twitter.com/lawofruby/status/1810432655474741531 who both explain more better than me.
It would be cool if the dems could ever get their act together...