The First Rule of Dem Debate Club Is...
Truth still not
June 26: Biden’s debate advice … Border-crossing record … Bowman out … Hot gay sex …
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About six in ten U.S. adults expect either to watch tomorrow’s debate between Pres. Joe Biden and former Pres. Donald Trump live or in clips after the fact, according to new polling out today.
(Keep in mind, the same most Americans who claim they’re going to watch are also the most Americans who claim they’re sick of Trump vs. Biden.)
Still, “most” would be a lot more than saw Biden deliver this year’s State of the Union (SOTU) address, in which Biden performed well according to the pundits who get to decide these things for us. It will also be the first time in four years that voters will see Biden unscripted, sparring with a political opponent other than Peter Doocy. And this is happening four additional years since Biden’s birth in 1942, when cigarettes were considered a nutritional supplement.
As loyal Newsfuckers know, TFN strives not to indulge in armchair political consulting, yelling what candidates should do because TFN knows the future. Therefore, today’s TFN will mask said indulgence in commentary about what other people are telling Biden to do. Namely, Biden advisors.
CNN reports that several Democrats — all of them both top and unnamed — are giving Biden’s camp the same piece of advice: Focus less on his accomplishments and more on Trump’s shortcomings.
How come?
StupidityTrump Derangement SyndromeMore stupidityCentrist shame/insecurity about progressive accomplishmentsJust incredible levels of stupidityIt’s not working.
One anonycrat told CNN that Biden “wants the credit, but it’s not working.” How do they know feel it’s not working? Because the polls are bad on the issues where he’s won his biggest victories. Especially the economy.
CNN says the critiques echo what former Biden Chief of Staff Ron Klain has been saying publicly: Even in his SOTU, POTUS should STFU about infrastructure. And Klain is now serving as a Biden debate coach.
Are Klain and Co. right that Biden’s messaging about his economic and other victories isn’t working? They are right. Are they right that therefore Biden shouldn’t focus on them tomorrow night? They are unright.
But, TFN, how can that be?!?
The reason Biden’s messaging has failed is that the people who need to hear it…haven’t. Disengaged voters weren’t watching the SOTU. More importantly, media aren’t relaying Biden’s message. They’re relaying bullshit.
So tomorrow is the one time he’s got to reach exactly who needs to hear this part of the Democratic message. The messaging about Trump gets heard 24/7.
Nine years after The Voyage to The Bottom of the Escalator, disengaged voters do not need to hear more about Trump.
I’m too lazy/pressed for time to find them, but I’ve read any number of articles in which deeply uninformed voters tell reporters they wish Biden would do X, Y, or Z, or build Bridge X from Point A to B — and then the reporter tells them, “Oh, he just did that,” and the disengaged voter becomes engaged.
Voters have bought into the dumb-ass Democratic and media narrative that politicians shouldn’t fight with each other (even though the founding fathers created the entire American political system to serve as an elaborate cage for political cage matches). So, today, voters don’t like the fighting. They’ve had nothing but insane vituperation for nine years.
And Biden, tomorrow night, has a chance to show them what he’s actually accomplished.
Klain has a point that Biden’s bridges don’t address inflation concerns. But (a) inflation is turning around, (b) that’s an accomplishment Biden can (falsely but whatever) take credit for, and (c) Biden could finally blame Wall Street and Trump for it (as I’ve explained ad nauseam) and do something about it.1
Now, here’s where we all hold our noses and your otherwise loyal, bullshit-abjuring TFN indulges in even worse armchair bullshittery: That’s right, kids, it’s time for pure, unalloyed, unfounded speculation!
Your TFN speculation for today is that this is all a feint. Yes, of course, Biden will throw some punches and drop some allegedly witty line which the author thereof will dine out on for the rest of their lives. And that’s appropriate.
But maybe they’re just pretending that Biden won’t focus on his accomplishments, so that Trump will adjust accordingly. Do I believe that? No. But maybe I’m just pretending I do so that Biden will adjust accordingly. Which he should.
There are huge swaths of America who have heard nothing about what Biden’s done. Biden’s accomplishments are substantive and forward-looking, which means, by definition, they get barely a mention on TV.
But most Americans, including Republicans, care about climate change. Biden has a record he can boast about — knowing that Trump won’t bring up Biden’s failures on climate change.
Most Americans like bridges and roads and infrastructure and tech. Biden has a record he can boast about — the ideal path here is to combine Biden boasting with Trump mockery: In this case, Trump’s habitual, fictional Infrastructure Week(s). If Biden doesn’t mention Foxconn, I’ll eat my hat (which, admittedly, is made of delicious Swedish chocolate).
Most Americans want more border security, regardless of current levels. Biden has a record he can, uh, try to boast about (see below). But most Americans also are capable of understanding — and will feel better hearing — that immigrants commit fewer crimes than Americans do and that their labor helped bolster the U.S. economy during COVID. Biden can pander to voters’ fears while making them feel not-guilty about it.
The real danger here for Biden and the Democrats is that the cartoon Trump that they’ve drawn, and that obligingly shows up at his rallies — won’t be on stage tomorrow. The reasonable-in-affect guy who showed up at the Rich Tech Bro podcast last week could beat Biden. That guy took a pro-immigrant stance even Biden hasn’t: Pledging green cards for foreign-born college grads starting Day One of Trump II.
Biden is vulnerable on his left, and it doesn’t sound like they’re prepping him to combat that Trump, or a calm, reasonable-seeming Trump. But with accomplishments, and substance2, Biden can beat Trump. Just not the Biden that unnamed Dems are trying to send on stage tomorrow.
Illegal Border Crossings Plummet
Look, an accomplishment!
Illegal border crossings are down by more than 40%, Homeland Security officials said today, three weeks after Pres. Joe Biden ordered new entry restrictions, and one day before a debate in which former Pres. Donald Trump will talk more about made-up immigrant crimes than about his own felony conviction.
At the start of June, about 3,800 human beings were crossing the border every day, seeking a better life than the crappy alternatives created by American foreign policy in their homes. This week, it’s averaged fewer than 2,400 per day crossing into the U.S. to escape dire circumstances, lower our crime rate3, and boost our economy.
These are the lowest numbers ever in the Biden presidency. Another factor: the White House has won real Mexican cooperation, so law enforcement there, too, is blocking border crossings.
You can expect to hear a lot about this tomorrow night, and Biden can also boast of expanding avenues for asylum-seekers to get in — making for an interesting contrast with Trump. Biden wants to let in those who can show they’re in danger back home. Trump wants to bring in the ones Tech Bros need to get richer by paying immigrants less than the American workers they won’t be hiring.
Also likely to make an appearance: Outlier crimes in which undocumented immigrants are accused of the worst kind of murder: White young slender female murder. Biden got baited into almost-correctly saying Laken Riley’s name at the SOTU.
The most obvious candidate for mention tomorrow night is 12-year-old murder victim Jocelyn Nungaray. The danger for Trump in using her death for politics is two-fold. As your helpful TFN noted last week, one of Jocelyn’s alleged killers got here after Trump killed border-security enhancements in Congress because he thought those enhancements would help Biden politically. The other danger Trump faces raising this case is that he may have to try to say “Nungaray” successfully.
Even odds he just says “Jocelyn.”
Brace Yourself, SCOTUS at Work
Pop quiz: How many previous Supreme Court decisions do you remember? I’m guessing: Few. Some, but few. So, keep some perspective as we get a flurry of decisions out of the right-wing court over the remainder of this week.
Anticipated Ruling Numero Uno is whether — after 200-something years of America-ing, 200-something years of political leaders and other fictional characters spouting almost plausibly that no one is above the law — the Supreme Court will formally codify that someone is above the law. Of course, we all know that some people have always been de facto above the law: Most rich white guys. And O.J. Simpson.
Historically, most white bro criminals have remained above the law by rewriting the law so that it’s beneath them. Today’s Wall Street business-as-usual was illegal back in the 1970s. Hell, just forming a limited liability corporation was considered suspicious in the 1980s.
The point is, the Supreme Court is about to decide whether to make it official and declare that presidents are above the law except when they’re Democrats. Former Pres. Donald Trump, who has been found by a jury to be not above New York State law, asked the Supreme Court to declare that federal crimes don’t count when they’re committed by him. Even serious felonies like trying to end the American democratic experiment.
The court could effectively shut down the election-stealing prosecution led by special counsel Jack Smith, narrow it, or confirm its validity. Shutting it down entirely would represent the official equivalent of Jan. 6, but successful, and — unless swiftly overturned…somehow — would likely stand in the history books as a major American turning point, one likely to shape our politics and our country for decades to come.
That said, as with all bad things, TFN’s official positions consist of the usual placations: Twas ever thus, this too shall pass, etc. etc. What that all amounts to is: Where’s the bottom? If the Supreme Court publicly/historically shits itself for everyone to see, robes be damned, the people still have reason to hope.
If people get pissed enough, if enough people decide “this is bottom,” we’ll get a Congress that will undo this. Or a president that will undo it. Or even a Supreme Court. American democracy is Newtonian!
Take a Bow, Man
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) lost his primary race to Westchester County Executive George Latimer last night, despite heroic pro forma efforts by the Democratic establishment, which always goes to the max to protect any non-progressive Democratic incumbents.
Bowman’s support was tepid from Democratic leaders, including some who’ve gone all out to protect conservative Democrats from progressive primary challengers, The Intercept reports.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) both showed up for Bowman. Literally. Others, not so much. So less, even.
As The Intercept’s Akela Lacy suggests, Democratic leaders weren’t thrilled with Bowman breaking ranks on Israel, and probably hadn’t forgiven Bowman for ousting their 30-year colleague, then-Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) in 2020’s primary.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is the top House Democrat. As Lacy notes, he’s campaigned around the country to help incumbents facing progressive challengers.
But Jeffries never took the subway ride uptown to campaign in Bowman’s district. In the same city.
Instead, Jeffries taped a robocall for Bowman in the final days of the race. And his political action committee gave Bowman $5,000, which in New York, the country’s #1 media market, buys you a subway token.4
And Bowman was up against more money than literally anyone has ever faced in a U.S. primary. This was the most expensive House primary race ever, and almost all of that expense was aimed at Bowman.
Fueled by Republican dollars, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) spent more than $14 million to beat Bowman, more than half the $23 million in total spent against him. Democratic Majority for Israel, which has ties to AIPAC, kicked in another $1 million to kick out Bowman.
Progressive groups together spent $1.75 million to help Bowman.
It didn’t matter that Bowman, like Latimer, condemned the Oct. 7 attack and supported a two-state solution. Bowman was too critical of both Israel and war.
Bowman not only called Israel’s assault on Gaza genocide, he called for Israel to stop it. That’s right, Bowman, unlike Latimer, supported a cease-fire. So AIPAC opened fire.
Asked what Democrats would do about AIPAC (which helps some Democrats) attacking progressives, Jeffries responded, “Outside groups are gonna do what outside groups are gonna do.” Quake in fear, AIPAC!
While Westchester voters horrified by Oct. 7 may have ousted Bowman at least in part for his Israel positions, his other positions haven’t been a real issue anywhere as much as his style and rhetoric have been. And Bowman wasn’t helped by shifting district lines that stripped away most of his Bronx constituents and folded in Latimer’s Westchester voters.
Bowman conceded defeat last night, but stood by his positions on Gaza and Israel as he did during the race.
Next on AIPAC’s to-undo list is Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO).
Crime Watch
HOT HOT GAY SINNING Pres. Joe Biden is going to pardon thousands of U.S. military veterans for the crime of hot consensual sex with people whose genital accoutrements were unapproved by the government.
This will allow those thousands of hot-gay-sex-havers to reclaim financial benefits withheld by the government due to their hot, hot criminal record.
“Unnatural [hot] carnal copulation” historically has been both the best kind of copulation and also a military crime from 1951 through 2013. Biden’s announcing the pardons with an official pronouncement today, but because some of those who were convicted have now died, their pardons will have to obtained post-mortem, and it’s not clear whether they’ll be allowed to leave Hell.
TCB
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Go get ‘em, kids. You got this.
As is explained in that story I just linked to, a former top financial regulator told me that Biden could knock inflation down just with a few public words indicating he’ll close a regulatory loophole that’s letting Wall Street speculators drive up prices.
And abortion, so much abortion.
Statistics show that undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans do, ranging from crimes such as murder to falsifying business records in order to conceal porn-star hush-money payments intended to deceive voters in an upcoming election.
Both untrue and impossible; NYC doesn’t do subway tokens anymore. Sad!
tRump has trouble with names, both remembering and pronouncing, so he won't even say "Jocelyn".
If he tries, it would come out "Jessie".
So many things to unpack in this. I'll go with Bowman first since I already commented on the NYT site about their crappy headline writing. Following along on this one, not only was the district reconfigged, but Bowman couldn't seem to stop shooting himself in the ... er ... foot. And they were big, huuuuugely public self-inflictions. I don't know that he would have survived if Oct 7 had not happened and he had not said stupid things that he had to walk back and added fuel to the already burning fire.